Friday, November 30, 2012

BlackRock’s conclusion of the US election

  • Neither party has a clear mandate after the election. This means hard work in avoiding the fiscal cliff of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts. Another debt downgrade could result.
  • The outlook of the US economy is either: the sky dive off the cliff or the last-minute hard stop. Expect increasing market volatility.
  • Even under the best-case scenario the US economy is likely to run into trouble next year.
  • Powered by shale oil and gas - US could become the biggest G7 growth story if politicians can compromise
Please click on the link below to read report.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BwxEiu6UUke9MHVnNnNKUkhXSFk/edit



Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Why direct property investment may not be suitable for retirees in SMSF


Why direct property investment may not be suitable for retirees in SMSF.

The general public perception is they can live on the rental income of their property investments through SMSF.

But what a lot of SMSF investors don’t realise is that because of its concessional tax benefits, it is expected that the account balance in a superannuation account based pension scheme is expected to be orderly withdrawn within a person’s life time. Obviously if the investment does very well there will be residue for the beneficiary/s.

The calculation for pension payment is the account balance of the investment divided by the pension factor*.  One example is a $600,000 fund with one property investment worth $450,000 and the rest in cash bank deposits. Using four assumptions in this example: the first two assumes that the member draws the minimum pension; property value increasing at 3% to inflation on the first assumption; no growth on the second assumption; conservative fees expenses; e.g. annual returns, audits, accounting etc. at the end of 13th years there are barely any cash left to make pension payment.

The difference in the last two assumptions is that the member elects to draws a yearly pension of $35,000, the cash runs out approximately on the 7th year.

It baffles me in this instance why people want to put property in a SMSF that has all the compliance complications and, expensive setup and exit fee if they only want to draws the minimum pension. The rental income in this scenario is already tax free if their total taxable income is less than $18,200 a year.


* Pension factor used in this example is the standard factor. Please note that the withdrawal relief provided after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/09 is being phased out. If you're receiving an income stream in 2011/12 or 2012/2013, the minimum annual payment is 75% of the normal rate. For example, if you are age 60 you only have to withdraw 3% instead of the usual 4%.



Caton's Corner - Economic Reports

In his monthly report BTFG's Chief Economist, Chris Caton, shares his views on the month of October and explores the main market-movers....

Please click on the link below to read the report
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BwxEiu6UUke9cTkxcVo2b3Z0cnM/edit



Saturday, November 10, 2012

The US presidential election

President Barack Obama has been returned to office for another 4 years term.
The focus is now on a series of tax rises and spending cuts which according to leading independent forecaster in Washington would plunge US back into recession.

BlackRock Investment Institute reported that a second term for Barack Obama could result in the US falling off the fiscal cliff with broken limbs.

Click the link below to read BlackRock Investment Institute report.

So how does Australia compare to the US?

According to one Australian sharemarket commentator suggested that Wall St’s issues are US specific. He said… 

I want to stress that Wall St’s issues are extremely US specific. Potential changes to US income tax rates shouldn’t have any dramatic effect on Australian equities and it was good to see a mature response from Australian equities yesterday and hopefully again today as large bank dividends are reinvested. I believe the case for relative and absolute outperformance of Australian equities vs. US equities is compelling, particularly considering our multi-year underperformance….

(Note: His article is not available for public reading)


Dr. Shane Oliver's recent report would give a fair insight of Australia standing in this fiscal environment. Key points of his report are:
  • Australia has a low level of total debt compared to other major countries. But while public and corporate debt is low, one area of greater vulnerability is household debt.
  • A chronic current account deficit in Australia also means a degree of vulnerability to foreign investor sentiment – although this has been the case for decades.
  • While Australia is not without debts risk, it is still relatively low, in part due to the flexibility to cut interest rates further, the buffer the $A provides during extreme shocks, pent up demand in the non-mining parts of the economy and the likelihood of a hard landing in China.
  

Click link below to read Dr. Shane Oliver report.









About Me

My photo
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia