Saturday, December 22, 2012

Big picture decisions for Australian equities in 2013 by Macquarie Investment Management

KEY MACQUARIE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT'S VIEWPOINTS:
  • We remain overweight mining and select mining services companies as we believe the markets is too pessimistic on commodity prices and is prematurely calling the end of the commodity cycle.
  • We believe overall Eurozone can achieve zero to small positive GDP growth, materially better than the dramatic slowdown that occurred in 2012.
  • We remain underweight the expensive defensive and high yield/no growth stocks as we see global risk appetite returning with fading GFC2 fears.
  • We are very selective in our positioning in Australian domestic exposed cyclicals. We see the cycle turning more favourable in 2014 than 2013 presently, but structural issues remain.
  • We see enormous value opportunities in Australian market reminiscent of the GFC-induced low in March 2009.


Click here to read the report



Monday, December 17, 2012

Capital expenditure and the RBA - has mining investment peaked?

Report by Richard Gibbs, Head of Economics, Macquarie Securities Group

Key points

  • Mining investment has been the major contributor to overall growth in Australia over the last couple of years. RBA has pared back its mining investment forecasts.
  • The peak in mining investment will have implication for growth in Australia
  • What the RBA has said about mining investment
  • What the peak means for the labor market

Click here to read the report



Review of 2012, outlook for 2013 by Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist

Key points

This note provides a review of key developments of relevance for investors in 2012 and the outlook for 2013. The key points are as follows:
  • While 2012 has had its share of worries, it has turned out far better than feared and share markets and growth assets have been able to generate strong returns for investors. This has been helped by investors looking for higher yields in the face of zero or falling cash rates.
  • The combination of diminishing extreme downside risks globally, a modest pick up in growth as the year progresses and attractive valuations for most growth assets points to another year of reasonable returns in 2013. Expect interest rates to remain low globally and fall a bit further in Australia.
  • The main risks relate to US budget and debt problems, a relapse in Europe, slow growth in Australia and a sharp back up in bond yields if investors get more confident.



Wednesday, December 12, 2012

RBA cuts cash rate to 3%

At its December Board meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to cut the cash rate by 25bps, to 3.0%, the same level it reached during the global financial crisis.

In Macquarie's view, the two key questions for monetary policy are: first, whether monetary policy is less effective when households are trying to deleverage (particularly when the other arms of macro-policy -- fiscal policy and the exchange rate -- are working against it). And, second, whether the RBA's decision in December has any implications for the outlook for rates over 2013

In Macquarie's view, the RBA will still need to cut the cash rate to 2% over 2013 in order to get the traction on housing construction that is needed to support growth.

It seems clear, however, that the RBA doesn't share this view. It seems that the RBA will only change its tune when there is irrefutable proof that mining investment has declined or that unemployment has risen much more sharply than the Bank is prepared to tolerate. And if that is the case, then the RBA may well remain the reluctant rate cutter for a few more months yet.


Click here to read Macquarie Investment Report

Friday, November 30, 2012

BlackRock’s conclusion of the US election

  • Neither party has a clear mandate after the election. This means hard work in avoiding the fiscal cliff of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts. Another debt downgrade could result.
  • The outlook of the US economy is either: the sky dive off the cliff or the last-minute hard stop. Expect increasing market volatility.
  • Even under the best-case scenario the US economy is likely to run into trouble next year.
  • Powered by shale oil and gas - US could become the biggest G7 growth story if politicians can compromise
Please click on the link below to read report.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BwxEiu6UUke9MHVnNnNKUkhXSFk/edit



Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Why direct property investment may not be suitable for retirees in SMSF


Why direct property investment may not be suitable for retirees in SMSF.

The general public perception is they can live on the rental income of their property investments through SMSF.

But what a lot of SMSF investors don’t realise is that because of its concessional tax benefits, it is expected that the account balance in a superannuation account based pension scheme is expected to be orderly withdrawn within a person’s life time. Obviously if the investment does very well there will be residue for the beneficiary/s.

The calculation for pension payment is the account balance of the investment divided by the pension factor*.  One example is a $600,000 fund with one property investment worth $450,000 and the rest in cash bank deposits. Using four assumptions in this example: the first two assumes that the member draws the minimum pension; property value increasing at 3% to inflation on the first assumption; no growth on the second assumption; conservative fees expenses; e.g. annual returns, audits, accounting etc. at the end of 13th years there are barely any cash left to make pension payment.

The difference in the last two assumptions is that the member elects to draws a yearly pension of $35,000, the cash runs out approximately on the 7th year.

It baffles me in this instance why people want to put property in a SMSF that has all the compliance complications and, expensive setup and exit fee if they only want to draws the minimum pension. The rental income in this scenario is already tax free if their total taxable income is less than $18,200 a year.


* Pension factor used in this example is the standard factor. Please note that the withdrawal relief provided after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/09 is being phased out. If you're receiving an income stream in 2011/12 or 2012/2013, the minimum annual payment is 75% of the normal rate. For example, if you are age 60 you only have to withdraw 3% instead of the usual 4%.



Caton's Corner - Economic Reports

In his monthly report BTFG's Chief Economist, Chris Caton, shares his views on the month of October and explores the main market-movers....

Please click on the link below to read the report
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BwxEiu6UUke9cTkxcVo2b3Z0cnM/edit



Saturday, November 10, 2012

The US presidential election

President Barack Obama has been returned to office for another 4 years term.
The focus is now on a series of tax rises and spending cuts which according to leading independent forecaster in Washington would plunge US back into recession.

BlackRock Investment Institute reported that a second term for Barack Obama could result in the US falling off the fiscal cliff with broken limbs.

Click the link below to read BlackRock Investment Institute report.

So how does Australia compare to the US?

According to one Australian sharemarket commentator suggested that Wall St’s issues are US specific. He said… 

I want to stress that Wall St’s issues are extremely US specific. Potential changes to US income tax rates shouldn’t have any dramatic effect on Australian equities and it was good to see a mature response from Australian equities yesterday and hopefully again today as large bank dividends are reinvested. I believe the case for relative and absolute outperformance of Australian equities vs. US equities is compelling, particularly considering our multi-year underperformance….

(Note: His article is not available for public reading)


Dr. Shane Oliver's recent report would give a fair insight of Australia standing in this fiscal environment. Key points of his report are:
  • Australia has a low level of total debt compared to other major countries. But while public and corporate debt is low, one area of greater vulnerability is household debt.
  • A chronic current account deficit in Australia also means a degree of vulnerability to foreign investor sentiment – although this has been the case for decades.
  • While Australia is not without debts risk, it is still relatively low, in part due to the flexibility to cut interest rates further, the buffer the $A provides during extreme shocks, pent up demand in the non-mining parts of the economy and the likelihood of a hard landing in China.
  

Click link below to read Dr. Shane Oliver report.









Friday, October 26, 2012

ATO Guide to self-managed superannuation funds

Overview

Like other superannuation (super) funds, self-managed super funds (SMSFs) are a way of saving for your retirement. The difference between an SMSF and other types of funds is, generally, that members of an SMSF are the trustees. This means the members of the SMSF run it for their own benefit.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

MLC 'Super or the Mortgage' analysis in the AFR Smart Money



The following below is a link to an MLC analysis on using surplus cashflow to invest in super or pay off the mortgage and insights from Gemma Dale, this article recently appeared in the Smart Money section of the Australian Financial Review (AFR):

Click here if you are interested in reading more..



http://afr.com/p/business/property/home_debt_can_wait_kBGetyWZyNNmW9lpDKpVQN
http://afr.com/p/personal_finance/smart_money/mortgage_savings_which_wins_AeqpDlWP3uRKEvWtlcitSM



Monday, October 22, 2012

SMSF and the War of the Roses

The War of the Roses


The Facts

The Notaras brothers, Basil and Brinos, were the only two trustees and members of their self-managed superannuation fund. Following a breakdown in their relationship, Brinos used his power as trustee to sell shares held by the fund and, in the name of the brothers as trustees of the fund, made withdrawals from the fund's bank accounts that exceeded his entitlement.

After completing the withdrawals, Brinos refused to take part in the management of the fund by failing to sign documents that were required to be lodged with the ATO.

The Court decision...

Please click here to read more..

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BwxEiu6UUke9d1lxU3k4ZDVKZWM/edit




Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Negotiating Aged Care Accommodation Bonds

Negotiating Aged Care Accommodation Bonds

Aged care support is a big mysterious subject to a lot of people. Yet it will be one thing that we will ultimately face up to one day ourselves. Some see it to be a long way away but for those who are older or have elderly parents then the stress is imminent.

I read an article today by Ms Louise Biti, Director of Aged Care Steps on “Negotiating aged care accommodation bonds” which I think is interesting to share.

It is common that we focus on prices when doing our shopping. Sometimes going from Coles to Woolworths next door or vice versa could save quite a few dollars in our weekly groceries bills. But here we are talking about the quality life and easy access for our love ones or ourselves. So focusing too much on prices could cause us to miss out on our Choice of Accommodation.

The article explains what is an accommodation bond, what is counted for the bond, Centrelink assessment, who gets to keep the bond, how much the accommodation provider deducts from the bond etc. The article also has a case study to illustrate the process when applying for aged care accommodation.

Please click the link below to read the article.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1IP5SEE_rI5CYE4iwrk1rmupPN-z85f5nBuGBgRcajhQ/edit





Wednesday, October 10, 2012

How low will the cash go?

Read Oliver's Insight Edition 33, dated 5th October 2012

Key Points:
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will have to cut interest rates further to boost the non-mining sectors of the economy as the mining boom fades at a time when the Australian dollar remins strong and fiscal cutsbacks are intensifying
  • After the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) caution has likely resulted in a reduction in the neutral level for bank lending rates as they are only now starting to be come stimulatory
  • Our assessment remains that standard variable mortgage rates will need to fall to around 6% which implies that the official cash rate will need to fall to 2.5%. We expect this to occur over the next six months, with the RBA cutting again next month by another 0.25%
  • Bank deposit rates will fall further, but the Australian share market is likely to be beneficiaries as lower interest rates eventually boost housing activity and retailing.

Click the link below to read more




Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Warren Buffett's wise sayings

Warren Buffett is widely acknowledged to be the world’s most successful ever share market investor. Over a 60 year business and investing career, Buffett has amassed a US$47 billion fortune, making him the world’s 3rd richest person.


What rate cuts mean for Australians

Interest rate cuts can be good news for mortgagees, however have you considered how it could affect your savings or investments? Jeff Brunton, AMP Capital’s Head of Credit Markets, Fixed Income, discusses what rate cuts mean for Australians"

Is it all good news? Click on the AMP's  video and listen to what Jeff Brunton have to say.




Wednesday, October 3, 2012

S&P 100 Bell Potter Coverage and valuations



The following are some share investing articles in today’s Australian Financial Review.

 Value stocks’ time may have come

Value stocks look attractive as many companies are trading at a discount to their book value, but a fractured marco-economic backdrop means investor should be cautious, warned equity strategist David Cassidy.

Mr David Cassidy of UBS issued the warning as many investors remain preoccupied with yield stocks in a low-growth environment – companies such as major bank with solid dividend streams.

Reported by Jane Searle, AFR dated 3rd October, 2012


 Value stocks

If you are think it’s time to buy value stocks, you’ll be best served by adopting a target approach, according to UBS equity strategist David Cassidy.

Reported by Peter Wells, AFR dated 3rd October, 2012

Read more about the articles in today’s Australian Financial Review

Bell Potter Securities Ltd has recently updated their S&P 100 Bell Potter Coverage and valuation. Please tick “Follow Me” for a copy of the report.


Saturday, September 29, 2012

“SMSFs and the fit factor”
written by Robin Bowerman, Principal, Corporate Affairs & Market Development at Vanguard of Australia

“Penalties for making administration errors can be onerous so for people considering setting up an SMSF it is worth investing the time and money understanding what is involved in managing an SMSF and the costs involved.”

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Schrodes Investment Management Ltd

Fixed Income and Credit Securities - investment update

Duration

50 minutes
Start Date Wednesday 15 August 2012 at 2:00 PM (GMT +10 hours)
Presenter Mihkel Kase, Portfolio Manager - Fixed Income

Mik Kase talks about where the Schroders' team sees the best opportunities as well as which investments to avoid. Taking both macro and micro perspectives on global bond and credit markets they discuss the outperformance of Australian bonds versus offshore equivalents, the need to focus on returns rather than yields and compelling credit opportunities across the diverse range of Australian corporate and bank capital structures.
Oliver's Insights

Dr Shane Oliver talks about the outlook for shares, their resilience in the face of global worries, and what QE3 could mean going forward.

Key Points

  • Global growth is likely to be in the process of reaching a low ahead of a pick up next year. The risk of a Euro-zone meltdown is receding, more monetary easing is also likely to keep the US recovery going and, at the same time, Chinese growth should soon pick up a bit.

  • While shares may see short term volatility, the combination of a stabilising global growth outlook, cheap valuations and easy global monetary conditions point to further gains by year end and into the next year.
 
Please find a webcast update from Hamish Douglass of Magellan Global Fund on:
 
  • the Magellan Global Fund's performance in context of the recent broad market rally and the fund's stock valuations;
  • his views on the Australian Dollar;
  • longer-term macro observations; and
  • as part of Hamish's involvement with the Australian Government's Financial Literacy Board, he speaks briefly about the MoneySmart Week initiative.

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Melbourne, Victoria, Australia